Background

Dr. Carina Antonia Hallin's extensive research on intuitive judgments and crowd predictions has spanned over two decades, beginning in 2004. This page delves into her journey of exploration.

Disclaimer: Please note that adaptations of her original research undertaken by individuals, organizations, or societies other than Dr. Hallin herself and Hybrid Intelligence World may not possess the same level of expertise in commercialization, testing, validation, and comprehension of the full applicability of various prediction parameters, which also include extensive prediction frameworks.

February 2004, Cornell University, Upstate New York

Carina Antonia Hallin, a master's degree student at Cornell University, was sitting outside the Johnson Business School, gazing at the building of the world-renowned Cornell School of Hotel Administration. As she absorbed the service purpose of the hotel school, the research hypothesis "The future is predictive" emerged in her mind.

This hypothesis might seem paradoxical, but it was grounded in Hallin's own observations as a young employee in the service industry. She had noticed that service workers, through their daily interactions with colleagues, guests, and managers, accumulated a wealth of tacit knowledge and prescient intuitions, about the hotel's guest satisfaction, innovation capability, managerial performance, team dynamics, and a multitude of other aspects of the business. 

Despite employee tacit knowledge holding a unique and potential strategic value about the conditions and state of the company, Hallin questioned why management hardly ever harnesses intuitive judgements from their employees. 

July 2005 to October 2009, Ph.D. Studies

In July 2005, Hallin received funding to start her research project at the University of Stavanger, Norway, and for her research stay at the Copenhagen Business School. In her studies, she became inspired by George Katona.

George Katona, a Hungarian-born American psychologist, was a pioneer in bridging the gap between economics and psychology. His doctoral studies in experimental psychology at the University of Göttingen in 1921 laid the foundation for his lifelong exploration of the psychological underpinnings of economic behavior. Working as a journalist and researcher in Germany until 1933, Katona's initial focus was on Gestalt psychology, particularly the mechanisms of learning and memory. However, the outbreak of World War II drew him into the American government's efforts to utilize psychological principles to combat inflation. This experience sparked his interest in applying psychological concepts to macroeconomics, leading him to develop measures of consumer expectations that ultimately evolved into the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Katona's groundbreaking index proved its worth during the post-war era when he correctly predicted an economic boom while conventional econometric indicators were forecasting a recession. This remarkable success cemented the index's credibility and further solidified Katona's reputation as a pioneer in the developing field of behavioral and economic psychology, (Katona, 1960, The Powerful Consumer).

Copenhagen Business School and Santa Clara, California

In the spring of 2012, while holding the position of an Assistant Professor at Copenhagen Business School, Hallin became intrigued by MIT Professor Thomas W. Malone's work, "The Future of Work." This groundbreaking book, along with Malone's subsequent research on collective intelligence, resonated with Hallin's own research on intuitive judgments. Professor Malone's work also introduced Hallin to cases of prediction markets and innovative platforms that aggregate and analyze the collective intelligence of participants.

Hallin's participation in one of the first collective intelligence conferences, held in Santa Clara, California, in 2015, allowed her to gain a deeper understanding of the practical applications of this burgeoning field. This experience further solidified her belief in the transformative potential of collective intelligence for revolutionizing organizations and societies and empowering individuals to make informed decisions.